I have been writing on trends in churches for two decades. I certainly don’t have a perfect record with my predictions, but my overall record is pretty good.
My methodology is simple: I observe emerging issues in some churches and extrapolate them into major trends.
This year I take this approach with a higher level of confidence than previous years. I have seen most of the following issues grow month by month in 2015, so I don’t have to be the brightest person in the world to project them as major trends in 2016.
Here are the first eight trends. I will conclude with the second group of eight trends in my next post.
- Church security as the fastest growing ministry. Shootings in churches and sex abuse of children mandate this unfortunate trend. No church can afford to be without serious security measures, policies, and equipment. It will evolve into a major church ministry.
- Decrease in worship center size and capacity. The large worship gathering is not as popular as it has been. Through multiple services and multiple sites, churches will follow this preference with smaller capacity worship centers.
- Increase in successfully revitalized churches. More church leaders sense a call to lead revitalized churches. Because of this desire and intentionality, we will see more success stories of churches that have experienced significant revitalization.
- Rapid growth of coaching ministries for pastors and church staff. The current trend is anecdotal, but it will soon be verified and obvious. Pastors and staff who have the humility to be led, and the willingness to invest resources in coaching are becoming the most effective church leaders.
- Increase in the numbers of churches in gentrified communities. Thousands of older urban communities are becoming revitalized. Churches are following the increased numbers of residents to these communities.
- Increased emphasis on practical ministry training. Church leaders in America have seen a much needed two-decade renewal of training in classical disciplines and doctrine. That need remains, but more leaders are crying for training in leadership, relational skills, and other practical ministries.
- Increasing emphasis on groups in churches. Church leaders are getting it. When church members are a part of some type of group, such as a small group or Sunday school class, they attend more faithfully, evangelize more frequently, and give more abundantly.
- Fewer segregated churches. For most of American history, 11:00 am on Sunday was the most segregated hour of the week. That is changing. A church that is not racially and ethnically diverse will soon become the exception instead of the norm.
Join me on Wednesday as I share trends 9 to 16. In the meantime, let me hear from you.
I think that you are right on the mark, Thom. I see these trends unfolding in the small to mid-size churches here in Georgia that are surviving and thriving. Good insight. God bless you.
Thanks so much, Steven.
Good thinking
My church is just like this which makes me happy to be like a man of God and bring friends and invite everyone. I serve and want to go and grow. I feel that the larger churches are growing away from the gospel due to the lure of money. It very sad and upsetting but I fear it’s all true. I have heard pastors say if you don’t like the way we operate you can leave. Wow, would Christ say such I thing to his children. I hope you find a small thriving body of Christ to be a part of. Don’t sweat the small stuff, just do your part to serve and love everyone in the name of Jesus. Thanks GMA
Dr. Rainer, have you noticed a growing trend of young people desiring a more traditional worship service consisting of hymns, responsive readings, longer sermons, and catechisms?
I am 33 and have incorporated these things into our worship and discipleship. The results have been amazing in that all of our new members are 30 or below. When I ask them why they began attending our church it was due, in part, to our traditional format. The funny thing is that the only age group that wants a more contemporary feel are those who are 40 to 60.
Do you think my experience is a fluke or is representative of a larger trend?
In the big cities, liturgical churches with Elizabethan English and some Latin have been growing lately with younger people. They put more focus on the Eucharist and a non-political homily focusing on the Gospel portion of the day. This forces the preacher to deal with parts of the Gospel that aren’t so easy to preach.
Seth –
Yes, certainly some segments of the Millennials. Look at my post on the Gettys where I address some of these issues.
Thanks!
I’m in my mid-40s and love and crave traditional these days!
I’ve also noticed this. There are several influential Christian young adult writers who grew up in evangelical churches and are now attending/serving in Anglican, Episcopal, or other traditional denominations. Jenn Giles Kemper, Rachel Held Evans, and Preston Yancey are the first three that pop to mind. Even for those who have stayed in evangelical churches, I’ve seen a renewed interest in the church calendar, the daily office, liturgy, etc. It may only be a segment of the population, but it’s definitely a growing segment. Thom, this would be a fascinating study for LifeWay!
I launched a volunteer security team late last spring. I began by asking those who were in law enforcement to meet with me to set up a schedule and policy to launch this ministry. They were excited to be a part of this new ministry. I plan on budgeting for this ministry next year.
That is so wise, Rick. Thanks for your foresight.
As a 34-year-old pastor I am delighted to see the interest in church revitalization. For about a decade I felt as though I did not fit within my generation or my denomination because I had no desire to plant a new church. My calling has been to the established church and it’s what I have been doing for 13 years. By God’s grace and for His glory we are seeing signs of revitalization. Love your blogs and often share them with the congregation on Wednesday evenings and even on occasion as a sermon illustration.
May your tribe increase, Kyle! Thank you.
These trends are more than just interesting because to ignore issues like security and racial diversity is ministry malpractice. I’m looking forward to the next post!
Very well said! I couldn’t agree more!
I’d add to the malpractice list the disregard of one gender (either one) and single people.
So true, Mark.
As a church staffer and pastor, I have unfortunately heard critical remarks made by other pastors regarding these points because they are sad that the times have changed. The truth is that churches that incorporate these principles are growing and leading the way. Thank you for simply stating the facts without a negative bias!
Thank you as well, Matthew.
#8 is especially encouraging. Looking forward to reading the next 8.
Thanks for the insight Thom. Could you explain #4 a little more? Are we talking about Pastors hiring coaches? Are these Life Coaches, or specialized coaches for ministry?
I know that the trend is more anecdotal at this point, but obviously significant enough to include it in a list of 8. Just looking for a little more insight into the coaching aspect of ministry.
My assumption is that he’s talking about leadership development for those within the church to learn how to help others. I may be wrong but i would also like to see more on this subject.
I agree with you. Sad that our greatest ministry is security, revitalization of churches is of great value and cultural diversity. But (and here’s a big but or a heavy sigh) we cannot underestimate the eternal value of small groups – done right. Once (on the ancient paths), churches had inquiry rooms where questions could be asked, prayers for wisdom said in faith and the Spirit moved in power. Let us not forget the beauty of asking questions – they do not reflect doubt, but belief – belief to know the truth from the Spirit of truth. Too many lies have been flung in the church like truth spears only to pierce the heart of the wounded. I don’t know if your next list will address the “walking wounded” but maybe so. Respectfully yours, Christine at http://www.christinemalkemes.com writing from a yielded heart.
I agree #8 is encouraging. I noticed at the SBC last summer that we’re seeing a lot more participation from Hispanic and African-American churches, and that’s a good thing!
I am a pastor of a church that had 1200 in attendance in early 90’s & declined by 75% when I arrived 10 years ago. The neighborhood around it changed radically. It was upper, middle class white for 40 years, and in the last 5 years all new members are extremely diverse – more than 50% non-white. It is thrilling to see a church grow that is in a completely transitioned neighborhood and left for dead. My church matches 1 (mixture of hired security & volunteer team), 3 & 8.
Great observations.
Apreciado Tom
Algunos de estos principios ya los he puesto en práctica y los otros ya van a incluirse en nuestra pequeña congregación rural de hermanos centroamericanos. La dificultad con nosotros es llevar a nuestros hermanos al nivel más alto de sus propios intereses y capacidad. Ellos no creen en las necesidades esenciales aunque quieren un cambio no lo muestran en acción.
Te sigo muy de cerca en tus ideas y sugerencias. Para mi son tan importante como mi almuerzo. Puedo pasar alguno, pero regularmente me almuerzo algo sólido que me sostenga al declinar el día.
Gracias por todo su gran trabajo e información que nos brinda gratuitamente.
Pastor Gabriel
Thom, I to see many of these friends as I work with Pastors around the country. I’m an ordained pastor and professional certified coach and it does seem like many pastors are looking for quality coaching. I think the challenge will be qualifications for a coach and a definition of coaching. Right now a lot of people say they are coaching others but in fact they are mentoring or advising. Thank you for your work in providing this information!
Thom, this is tremendous insight and I can see where you’re right on point with these trends. Some are alarming, like the increased need for security. Some are encouraging and I particularly resonate with decreasing worship size and revitalizing churches successfully. My hope is that decreasing worship capacity doesn’t lead to more multi-campus churches, specifically if the additional sites are video feeds of the main campus.
I’ve also noticed over the years that those in small groups are so much more engaged in more aspects of church community. I hope that the trend of implementing effective small groups will continue to grow. I’m looking forward to seeing the next 8 points!
Thanks, Gene. The other trends were posted today.
You said: “More church leaders sense a call to lead revitalized churches.” Perhaps we need to go beyond church as described in “Beyond Church–An Invitation To Experience The Lost Word Of The Bible” which is available in paperback and kindle at Amazon
http://www.amazon.com/Beyond-Church-Lost-Bible-Ekklesia/dp/1518744567/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1450354849&sr=1-1
Excellent insight Dr Rainer! As I survey the churches around our area I see evidence of all eight of these in place or emerging. In our church, we have some of these implemented and others evolving. Thank you…it is because of leadership like yours that we as churches can think, pray, discuss, & strategize about continually progressing in our advancement of the great gospel of Jesus Christ.
Thom, your insights as usual are right on target. I pastor and direct an inner city ministry and have been in my neighborhood for now almost 40 yrs. I have been in ministry for now 55 years. Years ago when our neighborhood began to decline I challenged the pastors and denomination I belong to transition–change where we would have a viable and powerful ministry in this neighborhood. They refused and then they died or moved and now that denomination has no viable witness in our community. In these latter days before our Lord returns we must understand that the revival and renewal we cry our for is predicated on CHANGE! God never changes but He demands that we change. In our community if we are going to be effective we must establish a beachhead that can and will supply the troops in the battle. Without resources we cannot succeed in the battle we have engaged in reaching people for Christ! Thank you for your insights and leadership at Lifeway!
Thanks so much, Ross.
Thanks for your research.
Sometimes I wonder if documenting what is “working” is necessarily indicating what indicates or constitutes congregational health.
Our church is becoming concerned about security. The life of my daughter’s pastor has been threatened. The elders and pastors of our church have decided that someone should be armed in each service ‘just in case.’ We want to be prepared. It’s too bad but in today’s world it’s reality. I used to be anti-gun but I’m not any more.
Thank you for this article. We agree with you. We are in our 40’s and we like the traditional church service. We want to focus on Jesus and not so much on the social club events, although those events are great for people who want to attend them.
I approve that message!
Dear Thom, I believe in a general Resurrection and that Jesus will come back one more time not in two separate events as many people teach and preach.I believe the Bible is very clear on this.
your thoughts please.
The trend that is so obvious and is keeping us from walking into the dark world as the light is the religious pious nature of Christian who have become know as the GOP conservative right and using the banner of Christianity as a shield. These other trends you are talking about will help set us apart as a club. We need to work on our own hearts and quit avoiding the issue that now the christian community is looked upon by the world as just being another governmental organization trying to push there agenda instead of just being a light and allow the Holy Spirit to change the life style and direction of those we are called to be a light too. Most Christians want to tell you what is wrong with Washington, but they don’t even know the name of the people on their own street
I agree…more focus must on encouraging and teaching believers on loving God, loving others, and humbly serving these individuals. As believers, we must selflessly dedicate ourselves to God’s purpose for our lives. It appears that too many believers, unfortunately, are utilizing the gospel for their own selfish purpose. Politics with divisive agendas will not change the hearts of man. Through the Holy Spirit’s sanctification process, man hearts will change. Jesus Christ and His word must be foremost to bring about a revival, which the church apparently is in need. The Scripture Matthew 28: 18-20 remains relevant.
What kind of ministries were you referring to in item #6 of this blog?
While the methods utilized by the church have changed over the years the mission has not. That is the true measure of a successful church.
I fully agree with you. How can we work together for the mission starting by praying for one another
Blessings
I am finding that there is more of the “world In churches” than “church in the world”. I recently left a church that had strobe lights and a “smoke ” machine with gospel light messages. It was very difficult to worship with lights hitting one in the face and coughing on that smoke. Yes, younger people are coming………….maybe for the entertainment. The pity of it all is that a trend has developed to not talk about sin, confession, true repentance. and a real relationship with Christ. It’s a “feel- good social justice message” with not a mention of accountability or leading a truly holy life. The Holy Spirit should be the force behind building a church, right?? I think of preachers like Billy Graham, David Jeremiah, the late Dr. Kennedy and they don’t /didn’t need gimmicks…….they don’t/didn’t need to accommodate . They just preached the Word. That is what brings a “true” conversion. It’s sad….almost apostate. It’s not what they preach…………..it’s about what they don’t preach.
We left our roots in the mainstream church and have become new to the Anglican faith and the Church in Charleston, SC . And let me tell you what an experience to walk into the historic (1751) sanctuary and feel the fullness of the Holy Spirit. It is like the title of the book “The Beauty of Holiness” by Louis P. Nelson (Anglicanism and Architecture in Colonial South Carolina). People are being drawn to the traditional worship of liturgy, hymns, creeds and re/processionals and actual gospel preaching – more about Jesus than about how we feel about ourselves. And even preaching that we are actual “sinners”. What a concept! Anyway, we hold 2 Alpha courses a year and we have found that the young millennials are flocking by droves into our church and other Anglican churches in the south. We think it is because they are tired of the “big screen gospel” and preachers in holey (not holy!) jeans and flip flops. They seem to be hungering for the old traditional worship and when they step into the sanctuary they are leaving the world of social media, noise and pressure behind. We do mix a few contemporary songs in with the traditional hymns and have young priests who speak to the pressures of growing up and living in this age. The Anglican’s (in spite of the break in the south with the Episcopal church) are growing leaps and bounds and planting an enormous amount of churches wherever they can. Keep an eye on these Anglicans…and learn from them. They are steadfast to the authority of Christ, authority of the bible and commitment to service in His name! Amen!
All of this is exactly why I don’t want to be associated with organized religion! If you followed what was written, you wouldn’t need these so-called trends to be answered.
Make sense….I don’t remember it written that Jesus told the apostles to get security? He is my security. Follow what is written…Seek and submit to God only.
Go home(in your closet) and wash your minds(mediate) with the Holy Word(KJV)…prepare to give your life for it!
William
Thanks Thom,
I am a pastor in a gentrified inner city neighborhood. Your pulse taking is very accurate from where I sit. Thanks for your concern and investment in the body of Christ.
Thank you!
My first time seeing or reading your blog. Quite informative.
I’m 73 yo, Methodist then Episcopalian, born-again, I’ve done jail and prison ministries (total 7 yrs), medical research career. One thing not touched in sermons of mainline churches, The same power that raised Jesus from the dead, lives in us. What can that power do today?
Thanks a lot for the insight
Church security as ministry may not be the answer if we don’t ponder on the real issue”insecurity in church”. God is to be kept at the center of any ministry
Blessings
I think there was a lot of interesting stuff on here. I liked the increasing emphasis on groups. Humans are social creatures and life is a lot more enjoyable when you’re in groups where you have things in common, and common goals. Interesting stuff, thanks!